Rightsizing Nations by Greenleaf Book Group

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Rightsizing Nations

In a world comprised of nations, size can determine destiny. But greater size may also come at a price. Larger nations can spend more on militaries. The United States can afford aircraft carriers; Costa Rica cannot. Larger nations can exploit economies of scale, spreading the costs of high¬ways, schools, and police across a greater number of taxpayers. Larger nations can offer companies deeper markets to sell goods and services, unfettered by trade barriers. In a nation of one individual, the priorities of the government can be perfectly aligned with those of its citizen. Add another person, and disagreements may arise. The more people, the more potential for conflict. Size often determines if a nation succeeds—or fails. Since WWII, most of the nations that were once too big have partitioned and the world saw an explosion in the number of countries from 74 in 1945 to 196 in 2022. But a number of nations are still too big and unable (or unwilling) to partition or decentralize. Unfortunately, for those nations, the remaining choices are to either continue to suffer from internal strife and political turmoil or transition to a more authoritarian regime. Some countries, such as China and Russia, have chosen the latter. Others, like the United States, are today struggling with the rise of autocratic populists who promise to bind the nation together by force. We have decisions to make.

Reviews

In this brisk and surprising study, Lockwood (Fooled by the Winners) analyzes the correlation between a nation’s size and its success (or failure), contending that “living in an optimally sized country is good, all else being equal. But all else is rarely equal.” He delves into five factors that determine a nation’s ideal size-incidence of warfare, cost of national defense, free trade, level of income inequality, and number of effective international government organizations, and breaks down the circumstances that influence their growth, arguing that countries have been shrinking since World War II. To drive home his principles, Lockwood analyzes contemporary examples including Japan, Russia, the United States, and more.

Lockwood’s advice often goes against the grain, such as his take on the euro (not sustainable, he submits) and his doubts on the merit of free trade: he argues that the concept of comparative advantage is unrealistic and outlines several drawbacks to free trade, chief among them the inability of workers to easily transition between professions. Lockwood contends that the Industrial Revolution was the catalyst for lasting change to the labor force and wealth disparity, warning that “the challenges for the average worker today are only just beginning.” Some potential answers for the US, he argues, lie in partition and annexation—though he points out the reasons these fixes are unlikely to help our current trajectory—and he makes the case for decentralization as the best method for increasing consensus.

The material is weighty, though Lockwood’s inviting prose and penchant for entertaining bits of history help break it up (the US once abandoned its Navy, and smaller nations have turned to nuclear weapons development to cement their status in a larger playing field). Lockwood’s ideas are provocative, particularly the possible benefits to a California secession and his caution against the risk of a more authoritarian government in the US, but his careful research and meticulous descriptions lend credibility to the text. Backmatter includes a breakdown of nations formed since 1945, along with their partition types.

Takeaway: An absorbing look at factors determining a nation's success and longevity.

Great for fans of: Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson's Why Nations Fail, Ray Dalio's Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.

Production grades
Cover: B+
Design and typography: A
Illustrations: N/A
Editing: A
Marketing copy: A

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